000
AXNT20 KNHC 190915
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 06N
to 21N, drifting westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N to 18N between 40W and 45W. Scattered
moderate isolated to strong convection is also noted north of the
tropical wave from 20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to
a sharp upper trough northwest of the tropical wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along
82W/83W south of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border
of Costa Rica and Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N to
20N between 75W and 88W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N17W to 10N23W to 13N44W.
The ITCZ extends from 13N46W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 11N between 15W and 25W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted near 1012 mb low pressure near
14N52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms is active over the
southeast and south-central Gulf, south of a trough from 26N81W to
1014 mb low pressure near 24N92W. Light to gentle E breezes
persist across the Gulf between the weak low pressure and equally
weak high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Seas are 1-3
ft in the eastern Gulf and 2-4 ft in the western Gulf.
For the forecast, ridging will dominate the Gulf region
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early
next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper-
level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move
into the NE Gulf today. This feature will lead to increasing
shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf
waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the
basin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
allowing for mostly fresh E trades over the central Caribbean
from 11N to 15N between 68W and 79W, where seas are 6-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere along with seas of
5-7 ft, except for gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas over the
northwest Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally maintain
fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas
over most of the central Caribbean through this morning. Winds
will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the
pressure gradient relaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A trough extends from 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Farther
east, another trough is along 60W from 25N to 30N, and from 31N43W
to 23N55W. This creates a weak pressure pattern supporting light
to gentle breezes and 3-4 ft seas west of 50W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are active off east-central Florida and between
the southern Bahamas and Bermuda. Gentle to moderate breezes and
5-7 ft seas are noted east of 50W. As noted in the Tropical Wave
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to a sharp upper
trough near 29N47W.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak troughing will persist north
of the Bahamas through late Sun, then dissipate. High pressure
will then become the dominant feature across the basin during
through early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with
slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola.
Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper-
level low now located over central Florida, will continue to
support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms off east-
central Florida and between the southern Bahamas and Bermuda
through at least Sun.
$$
Christensen
