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MCD #2372

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Full discussion from: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2372.html
Mesoscale Discussion 2372
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern/eastern Kansas into northern
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682...

   Valid 140158Z - 140400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk for primarily damaging/severe wind
   gusts continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms
   remain ongoing along a progressive surface cold front extending from
   northern Missouri into south-central Kansas as of 0200 UTC. The
   strongest of the ongoing thunderstorms is a convective cluster
   progressing eastward across western Missouri that produced numerous
   reports of damaging/severe wind gusts in the Kansas City metro area
   over the past 1-2 hours. Latest high-resolution CAM guidance
   suggests that this cluster may continue downstream for at least
   another couple of hours, with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-40 kts of
   effective bulk shear helping to maintain some potential for
   occasional damaging/severe wind gusts. However, increasing
   convective inhibition and decreasing instability with eastward
   extent suggest that the overall severe risk will decrease with time
   as convection progresses eastward. Thus, a downstream watch is not
   currently anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   Farther southwest, scattered elevated thunderstorms remain ongoing
   along the cool side of the convectively reinforced surface front.
   While regional radar imagery has sampled occasionally stronger
   velocity signatures within more robust cores (perhaps associated
   with gravity wave processes), the elevated nature of the convection
   and greater low-level stability on the cool side of the boundary
   suggest that the overall severe risk has decreased, with any
   lingering potential for damaging/severe wind gusts and marginally
   severe hail likely to remain relatively isolated.

   ..Chalmers.. 10/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37569748 38409631 39209503 39559404 39869294 39899249
               39829220 39589210 39319217 39059286 38859362 38289499
               37339642 37149693 37059721 37129745 37259755 37409756
               37569748 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN