Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

All data from the SPC

Day 3 Graphical Outlook

Definition: The probability values represent the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any point, which is approximately the size of a major metropolitan area.

Day 1 & 2: The outlook contains individual severe probabilities for tornadoes, wind, and hail.
Day 3: Due to greater uncertainty, the outlook only forecasts the combined probability of all three types of severe weather.

Context: Probabilities for severe thunderstorm wind and hail are typically higher than for tornadoes because they are more common. A 15% probability for a tornado means significantly above normal odds of a tornado nearby, which should be taken seriously, even though the number seems low.

Note: The peak daily tornado probabilities in the most tornado prone portions of the country (Plains and Southeast) are slightly above 2%. Therefore, most days with any tornado probabilities are well above climatology.


SPC Category Descriptions (Click image to enlarge)



Issue Times

Day 2 Outlook - Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Discussion

SPC AC 110701

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered severe storms appear possible over portions of the
   central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. More
   isolated severe weather may occur into the mid Mississippi Valley,
   and in parts of the lower Great Lakes.

   ...Synopsis...

   A midlevel low will slowly progress through the Great Basin with a
   downstream belt of enhanced, mid/upper-level flow extending from the
   southern Rockies into the Great Lakes. Within that airstream, a
   short-wave trough will progress from the Great Lakes into the
   Northeast, while a more subtle disturbance advances from the central
   and southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an
   area of low pressure associated with the former disturbance
   mentioned above is expected to develop from lower MI through the
   northern Mid-Atlantic into New England with a boundary trailing that
   feature from the southern Great Lakes into the central High Plains,
   where it will link with a deepening lee cyclone over southeast CO.


   ...Central and Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...

   While midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly
   steep, daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the
   mid 60s to lower 70s is expected to contribute to a moderately
   unstable warm sector by afternoon. The specific details regarding
   convective evolution remain uncertain; however, forcing for ascent
   associated with the midlevel disturbance and convergence in the
   vicinity of the synoptic front, dryline, and lee cyclone are likely
   to aid in diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development. Highest
   confidence in that occurrence remains over portions of southwest KS
   into the OK and TX Panhandles, where the low-level mass response to
   the deepening CO low will be the greatest from late afternoon into
   evening. Vertical shear will be sufficiently strong to support
   supercells capable of mainly large hail initially. Tornado potential
   may increase during the evening with any ongoing supercells as the
   low-level jet strengthens. Upscale growth into one or multiple storm
   complexes appears possible, at which point, the threat for damaging
   winds would correspondingly increase.

   An areal expansion in level-2/Slight Risk probabilities may be
   required in later outlooks once finer-scale details become more
   clear.


   ...Lower Great Lakes...

   Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning within a
   zone of low-level warm advection and moisture transport preceding
   the surface low and short-wave trough. Clouds and precipitation may
   linger into afternoon, limiting the destabilization in those areas.
   However, where stronger heating can occur, the presence of
   boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will support at least a
   marginally unstable environment by afternoon. Both low-level and
   deep-layer shear will be relatively strong, and on the condition
   that surface-based storms develop and are sustained, the threat for
   locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would exist.

   ..Mead.. 10/11/2026

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z