Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

All data from the SPC

Day 2 Graphical Outlook

Definition: The probability values represent the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any point, which is approximately the size of a major metropolitan area.

Day 1 & 2: The outlook contains individual severe probabilities for tornadoes, wind, and hail.
Day 3: Due to greater uncertainty, the outlook only forecasts the combined probability of all three types of severe weather.

Context: Probabilities for severe thunderstorm wind and hail are typically higher than for tornadoes because they are more common. A 15% probability for a tornado means significantly above normal odds of a tornado nearby, which should be taken seriously, even though the number seems low.

Note: The peak daily tornado probabilities in the most tornado prone portions of the country (Plains and Southeast) are slightly above 2%. Therefore, most days with any tornado probabilities are well above climatology.


SPC Category Descriptions (Click image to enlarge)



Issue Times

Day 1 Outlook - Day 3 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Discussion

SPC AC 141726

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
   brief tornado or two are possible over portions of the
   mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon and evening.

   ...Synopsis...

   An upper trough will dig south and east across the northern/central
   Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. As this occurs, a shortwave
   disturbance over the southern/central Plains will lift northeast,
   eventually overspreading the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys ahead of the
   developing larger-scale upper trough. A plume of moisture from the
   southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and persistent warm advection
   will support areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some
   severe thunderstorm potential developing across the Ohio Valley.

   ...Mid-MS and OH Valleys...

   Height falls associated with the lead upper shortwave impulse will
   develop over south-central IL during the day and spread
   east/northeast into the evening. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms
   will reinforce an outflow/effective warm front from near the MS
   River eastward roughly near the I-70 corridor across IL/IN. This
   early day convection and associated cloud cover within a corridor of
   persistent low-level warm advection will impact warm sector
   destabilization, the degree to which remains uncertain.
   Nevertheless, a narrow plume of upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
   will support a corridor of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite expected
   poor lapse rates. Modest vertically veering wind profiles in the low
   levels, combined with 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support
   transient supercells and bowing segments as additional convection
   develops toward late afternoon/early evening amid an increasing
   low-level jet and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.
   Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible with this
   activity, in addition to a tornado or two (mainly across
   south-central IL to central IN). Conditionally higher tornado
   probabilities may be possible in later outlooks depending mesoscale
   trends in the near-surface boundary layer influenced by early-day
   convection. 

   Instability will wane with eastward extent across OH during the
   nighttime hours and severe potential should gradually wane as storms
   shift east/northeast.

   ...Southern Plains...

   Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
   southeastward-advancing cold front from southwest TX toward southern
   OK. A moist and modestly unstable airmass will reside across the
   region, but vertical shear is expected to remain marginal (and flow
   below 700 mb generally weak). Boundary-parallel shear vectors also
   will support anafrontal/undercutting convective processes.
   Furthermore, midlevel lapse rates also will remain poor. A stronger
   storm producing gusty winds or small hail could occur, but overall
   severe potential is expected to remain limited.

   ..Leitman.. 10/14/2026

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