National Hurricane Center - Current Synopsis

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Tropical Depression ALBERTO

• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Public Advisory Number 11
  Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 ...ALBERTO REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 75.5W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ALBERTO COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Forecast/Advisory Number 11
  Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220841 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 0900 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 75.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 75.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 33.4N 73.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.5N 71.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 37.5N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 75.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 11
  Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220843 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 GOES-E SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW BANDING REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THIS DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IS MORE THAN LIKELY TEMPORARY...GIVEN THE HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...I HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ALBERTO AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED ABOUT 65 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 33 KT. STRONG 50-60 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES CELSIUS OR LESS SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/13. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...ALL OF WHICH SHOW DISSIPATION IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 32.0N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 33.4N 73.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 35.5N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 37.5N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
  Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012 000 FONT11 KNHC 220841 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 0900 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 9 20 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 59 52 53 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 37 38 27 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 1 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 May 2012 08:42:05 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 May 2012 08:41:41 GMT ]]>
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Advisory 11 Forecast Track, Cone, Watches/Warnings (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 May 2012 08:41:18 GMT
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Advisory 11 Forecast Track (.kmz)
  GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 May 2012 08:41:20 GMT
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Advisory 11 Forecast Cone of Uncertainty (.kmz)
  GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 May 2012 08:41:20 GMT
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Best Track Information (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 May 2012 08:40:50 GMT
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Best Track Information (.kmz)
  GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 May 2012 08:40:50 GMT
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Forecast Information (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Mon, 21 May 2012 20:31:37 GMT
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.5 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 May 2012 09:06:13 GMT
• Tropical Depression ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.shp)
  GIS Data last updated Tue, 22 May 2012 09:06:08 GMT

Issued at  Tue, 22 May 2012 08:41:19 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.

000

ABNT20 KNHC 191556

TWOAT 



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD

BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY

SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...

PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

OFFICE.  ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE

ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



&&



ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS

FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS

HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.



$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI



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